{
  "tiers": [
    {
      "id": "tier-a",
      "letter": "A",
      "name": "Production-ready",
      "sub": "Round-trip trade works through a tested surface with no significant friction. Safe to point an agent at today.",
      "layout": "featured",
      "linkTo": "testing",
      "pms": [
        { "name": "Manifold",          "verdict": "Play-money MCP scores 17 of 18; the easiest place to start." },
        { "name": "Baozi",             "verdict": "76-tool MCP server on Solana with a clean round-trip.", "tags": ["low-liquidity"] },
        { "name": "Myriad",            "verdict": "BNB-chain CLI nails the full trade with one rough edge." },
        { "name": "Seer",              "verdict": "Gnosis framework deploys real trading agents to Seer markets.", "tags": ["low-liquidity"] },
        { "name": "AIOmen / Presagio", "verdict": "300+ daily active agents already trading via Olas.", "tags": ["low-liquidity"] },
        { "name": "Metaculus",         "verdict": "Active forecasting framework with daily commits — submits probability estimates, not trades." }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "tier-b",
      "letter": "B",
      "name": "Workable with friction",
      "sub": "A real trade completes, but a major friction point keeps it from being production-ready: geofencing, hostile accessibility, or VPN-only access.",
      "layout": "featured",
      "linkTo": "testing",
      "pms": [
        { "name": "Polymarket",   "verdict": "Most polished agent stack on the market; geoblocked in 33 countries including the US, UK, EU, and Australia." },
        { "name": "Alpha Arcade", "verdict": "MCP completes the trade, but the website is rated D for agent accessibility — agents must already know the tool exists.", "tags": ["low-liquidity"] }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "tier-c",
      "letter": "C",
      "name": "Surface exists, doesn't function",
      "sub": "Has tested agent surfaces (CLI, MCP, or Skill) that fail to complete a real trade end-to-end.",
      "layout": "featured",
      "linkTo": "testing",
      "pms": [
        { "name": "Rain Protocol",   "verdict": "OpenClaw skill opens positions but cannot close them." },
        { "name": "Limitless",       "verdict": "Two tools published, both auth-walled, zero trading checks pass." },
        { "name": "Context Markets", "verdict": "CLI and Skill both exist; neither completes a trade end-to-end.", "tags": ["low-liquidity"] },
        { "name": "Sapience",        "verdict": "ElizaOS plugin gets one download per week and hasn't shipped since August 2025.", "tags": ["low-liquidity"] }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "tier-d",
      "letter": "D",
      "name": "Dev tools, no agentic layer",
      "sub": "These PMs ship developer APIs and SDKs, but no MCP, Skill, or Framework has been published or tested. They could be agent-ready with effort; we just don't have evidence yet.",
      "layout": "compact",
      "linkTo": "landscape",
      "pms": [
        { "name": "Kalshi" },
        { "name": "XO Market" },
        { "name": "Opinion" },
        { "name": "SX Bet" },
        { "name": "predict.fun" },
        { "name": "Probable" },
        { "name": "Trueo" },
        { "name": "Interactive Brokers (ForecastTrader)" },
        { "name": "PredictIt" }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "tier-e",
      "letter": "E",
      "name": "Closed to agents",
      "sub": "No public dev surface beyond the consumer web UI. No documented API, no SDK, no agent layer.",
      "layout": "compact",
      "linkTo": "landscape",
      "pms": [
        { "name": "Robinhood Prediction Markets" },
        { "name": "OG (by Crypto.com)" },
        { "name": "DraftKings Predictions" },
        { "name": "FanDuel Predicts" },
        { "name": "Overtime" },
        { "name": "worm.wtf" }
      ]
    }
  ],
  "findings": [
    {
      "n": "01",
      "headline": "Geoblocking treats agents like they're human.",
      "body": "Polymarket, the most agent-tooled PM in the dataset, is geofenced in 33 countries including the US, UK, EU, and Australia. Agents run on cloud VPS in whichever region the operator chooses; that location reflects hosting decisions, not the operator's actual jurisdiction."
    },
    {
      "n": "02",
      "headline": "The biggest PMs are not the friendliest to agents.",
      "body": "Polymarket and Kalshi together account for the majority of total prediction-market volume. Neither is in Tier A. The top of the ranking is mid-volume DeFi: Manifold, Baozi, Myriad."
    },
    {
      "n": "03",
      "headline": "Some \"agent surfaces\" exist nominally but don't function.",
      "body": "Limitless ships a CLI and an MCP server — both pinned to versions, both auth-walled, both fail every trading check. Sapience's ElizaOS plugin gets ~1 download/week and targets a host framework version that no longer exists. Polymarket Agents has 2.7K stars but the execution path is commented out by default."
    },
    {
      "n": "04",
      "headline": "Most regulated PMs treat agents as a B2B integration channel, not as users.",
      "body": "Of seven regulated/CeFi PMs surveyed, only Kalshi has a developer surface that an agent could reasonably use today. Even Kalshi has not published an agent-specific layer — its API is built for institutional partners. Robinhood, OG, Interactive Brokers, PredictIt, DraftKings, and FanDuel have minimal or no public dev surface."
    },
    {
      "n": "05",
      "headline": "Dev surface and website live in two different worlds.",
      "body": "11 of the 20 PMs scored for agent accessibility sit at C or D, including PMs whose APIs we know are functional. PMs invest in developer documentation for partners who already know what they're looking for, while leaving their consumer website unparseable to a fetch-only agent. Discoverability is a separate problem from documentation."
    },
    {
      "n": "06",
      "headline": "There is no shared format for agent surfaces.",
      "body": "The five skills tested use five different formats: SKILL.md, OpenClaw script bundles, custom SDK guides, navigation-hub markdown. Frameworks vary just as widely. An agent built for one PM cannot transfer to another. There is no equivalent of OpenAPI for prediction markets."
    }
  ]
}